Go to the place where the price increase is high. To sum up, the market trend and evolution in the past month. It can still be captured from the three thick granular latitude of liquidity expectations, performance expectations and valuations, to capture the market conditions fluctuations.
The liquidity ten -year national bond yield continued to rise after July, and liquidity expectations have been tightening. The regulatory authorities represented by Moma began to switch from more flexible monetary policy to the normalization of monetary policy, the general currency gate gate, and stable leverage. Although the impact of the new crown pneumonia’s epidemic, the global water release, and the total currency in fact continued to increase, but in the context of the capital market, it has become a past style. It is pointed to the three words for future expectations: money is expensive. Especially in the A -share world with a vision of only three months. It can also be seen from the change trend that the yield returns to the epidemic, but the total market value of the A -share capital market is increasing (bonds and stocks), that is, some of the currency is partially transmitted and precipitated into asset prices, which is why each time each time The hell of the poor in the paradise of the rich, the rich, the rich people have the assets that create cash, and the poor are more popular in life.
For changes in asset performance expectations, the capital is gradually from industries with high performance possibilities and great imagination, and to industries with high performance of performance. Among them, the forward -looking indicators that can most reflect performance are based on market stability pattern and leading position price increase effects effect. Essence Such as liquor and commodity. Since November, the economy has continued to recover, and the industrial production data PPI of the supply end of the supply side has continued to improve, and this performance is determined.
If you look at the valuation data, in addition to being subject to liquidity, there is also the average return of historical valuation anchor psychology, and market irrational emotions catalyzed by major events. On the whole, the overall A -share valuation water level has experienced two water in 2019 and 2020 and directly jumps directly.
In the expectations of tightening liquidity, industries with no performance expected support fastened. The corresponding investor account fluctuated. In the first half of the year, I lost money in the first half of the year and lost more in November. In the first half of the year, I made money in July and continued to innovate high in November or even lose money in November. Stop loss.
The tangling of the water falling in the high valuation industry and the low -valuation industry, the vibration effect of the birth of the market, and the effect of the catalyst due to major events, which leads to the “pancake” section of the funds and electric fans on the venue.
In the industry valuation quadrant of Heng PE and vertical PB, the valuation of foods, drinks, pharmaceuticals, and household appliances is located in the first quadrant, and the steel and mining industries are located in the third quadrant, and other industries are negatively deviated.
The above -mentioned rough market trend research and judgment, through macroeconomic data, financial data, especially monetary credit data, and the valuation data of the mid -view industry, you can roughly judge the temperament and temper of A shares.
The rise and concentration of product penetration and concentration increase the leading performance, the product price increase promotion performance, the return of low valuation repair, the critical strike of the black swan incident, etc., all have high market opportunities. Different investment strategy directions. If the same frequency resonance, there is a probability that there is an opportunity for bull stocks, such as 1300%British medicine.
If product penetration and concentration increase the leading performance as the direction, the new energy vehicle and small home appliance industries are quite worth looking forward to. Compared with historical feedback such as TCL, Changhong TV, and Gree and Midea air conditioners, boss kitchen appliances, the overall market value space of the small home appliance industry is obviously not fully opened. Regardless of entrepreneurial or investment, real bull stock companies have not completely ran out of the market out of the market. Essence The following brief description can be used as a tracking reference.
1 | Small home appliance “category base” brand brief description
Prior to 1978, home appliances of Chinese families mainly came from imported foreign goods and state -owned business factories planned to produce and distribute.
After the reform and opening up, the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, the Shandong Peninsula and other regions relied on the first batch of open port advantages of developed countries such as Hong Kong, Macao, Japan, South Korea, and Europe to undertake the wave of transfer of the home appliance industry in various developed society and gradually rose. Foreign capital, joint venture, private, state -owned and other parties and other parties have burst into conflict. After two decades of ups and downs, the above three industrial cluster areas have developed. The hard heritage of the third -tier state -owned factories has transformed into an industrial regional market forces that cannot be underestimated.
In the meantime, color TV and air conditioners have become the main categories of Sichuan -Chongqing and Pearl River Delta. The refrigerators and washing machines are concentrated in the Shandong Peninsula. The Yangtze River Delta revolves around the kitchen range hood. The respective regions form their own main categories. Midea, Gree, Galanz, Haier, Changhong, Hisense, Fang Tai, Boss and other industries and other industries.
From January 18 to February 21, 1992, Deng Xiaoping toured the south for a month, delivering a famous Southern Tour speech on the way to clearly support the process of marketization of China’s economic marketization and accelerate the reform of state -owned enterprises. From October 12th to 18th of the same year, the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China settled, to establish a socialist market economy system with Chinese characteristics.
In the Third Plenary Session of the Fourteenth Central Committee of 1993, the reform process of state -owned enterprises with a modern enterprise system accelerated. Since the second state -owned transitional political and economic wave after reform and opening up, China has swept Kyushu quickly.
From the small home appliance industry since 1992, among the three market forces of the old -fashioned factories, foreign joint venture factories, and private new factories, competitive and cooperative commercial dramas are continuously staged. Business models such as brands and channels are gradually set.
In the field of self -employed models of the state -owned factories, the rainbow electrical appliances located in the Sichuan -Chongqing Old Third Line are a model.
In 1993, the former Chengdu Electric Heat Factory, the former director of the Rainbow Group, was led by the factory director Liu Rongfu, and introduced the reform of social capital to a collective joint -stock system. Jointly launched, the establishment of Chengdu Rainbow Electric (Group) Co., Ltd., the main production of the original old products of the Guoying Factory electric blanket and electric mosquito coils. In 1994, Rainbow Electric produced the entire line of China’s first bed to safeguard the electric blanket, successfully eliminating the fracture of the electric blanket, and the hidden safety hazards of local combustion.
In 2003, Liu Rongfu took the lead in restructuring again, changed from a collective joint -stock system to a joint -stock enterprise, all employees became shareholders, and became the actual investor of the holding body. Since then, in the field of health and mosquito coils, the health and disinfecting products areas, and the more brave.
Since 2008, it has participated in and hosting national standards such as electric blankets, electric heating pads, electric heating hand -warmers, etc., and four recommended national standards such as mosquito coils, insecticidal fog fog agents.
From 2016 to 2018, electric blankets were sold in the country. The size of its product, according to the disclosure of the prospectus, has 6 electric blanket production lines. In 2019 The capacity utilization rate reached 111.77%. The scale of the total revenue exceeded the 1 billion mark, the gross profit margin was about 45%, and the net interest rate reached 10%.
In December 2020, it officially landed on A shares to become the first share of electric blankets and electric mosquito coils. It steadily occupies category bases such as electric blankets, electric mosquito coils, and hand heater, and continues to promote the scope of the forces of the industry.
In the 1990s of the Rainbow Electric Heating Blade “Transfer” to release the operating vitality and competitive potential, the Chaoshan Economic Zone, Guangdong, which later grew into an industrial cluster of the Chinese home appliance capital. The scale pink and ink appear.
At that time, the main strategies of home video players in various ways were: dependent on township enterprises, some of them made accessories for large factories, some made OEM production for large factories, and some did three to one -to -one trade. Most of them were small and small. Yuhua, Rongsheng, Midea, and Hua Hua of township enterprises also gradually became well -known domestic small home appliance labels at that time. Midea is stepping up the internal transfer and trying to go public.
Driven by the dividend of foreign joint venture policies, a small home appliance category base is worked with self -operated products. The growth and final rudder’s journey of sky appliances represent a future path of the small home appliance industry.
In 1994, the 31 -year -old distinguished young man Wu Xidun, after experiencing the workplace baptism of state -owned institutions such as the Malaysia Forest Factory, Shantou Port Authority, Shantou Outer Rolling Company, decided to get off the sea. Sky electrical appliances, Shantou Sida Electric, are registered and established. Wu Xidun is registered in an exclusive name. It mainly specializes in household appliances, communication equipment, and refrigeration equipment. During this period, Chi Jinhua, a specialized wife, also worked as a teacher from Shantou’s switching factory to the Shantou Dahua Primary School.
In 1995, the Wu Xidun couple registered Xingjia International in Hong Kong to facilitate foreign trade transactions, and they could also enjoy mainland policy dividends during the open period in the name of foreign capital. Investment funds complete foreign funding qualifications in the name of borrowing from Hong Kong mysterious people.
In 1996, Sida Electric and Xingjia International jointly funded to register the establishment of Guangdong Skyrim Electric, and Sida was officially transferred to a foreign -funded joint venture. Chi Jinhua resigned from the full -time to Sida Electric as an employee, and then invited Zheng Wenlong, a cadre of Shantou Tourism Corporation and Shantou Aviation Industry Corporation at Shantou Microex Machinery Plant, Shantou Tourism Corporation, and Shantou Aviation Industry Corporation. Work.
In 1997, Wang Di, the former leader of Dongguan Lide Electronics, joined, in charge of manufacturing and product quality. The momentum of the home appliance industry began with red fire.
In 1998, a member of the Wu Xidun family established Shantou Skyrim. The eldest sister Wu Pingping and the daughter of the elder brother Wu Xuezhen, the eldest sister of the Hardware Factory of Shantou City, are the core shareholders.
In 1999, Wu Xidun invited civil servants Zheng Chu to officially join the sea, and Wu Xidun transferred 20%of the equity of Sida Electric to him. With the help of Zheng Chuyu’s working background of the Shantou Sports Commission and the Shantou Supply and Marketing Cooperative, Skyrim Electrical Channel is worry -free. At the same time, the technical team of Skyrim Electric is increasingly beautiful. Dai Liangcai, the leading engineer of the main technology and the development of product development, Yang Zhiqiao, Chen Yunjie, Zhan Wenjie, He Xiaobing, etc., the core technicians in charge of product development, have come to Skyrim Electric to develop a rice cooker. , Water stew pot and other products.
Ceramic rice cookers, electric hot pots, stew pots, mixers, soy milk machines, rice cookers, noodle machines, juicers, electric pots and other small home appliance products, all enter the sales list, even developed shoe machines, Chinese medicine pots The traditional Chinese medicine pot, as well as medical equipment and electrical therapy instruments, etc., finally established the category advantageous position with ceramic electric stew pots, electric stew pots and other products.
The living habits of stewing and pots in Guangdong families, as well as the characteristics of food therapy for health and health of Chinese medicine, have become the key cultural driving element of the rise of sky appliances.
From 2011 to 2014, the production and sales and market share of the “Skyrim” brand cooking appliances (stew cookers, stew pots) have ranked first in the industry, and the market share often reached 30%. It started the stock reform in 2011 and entered the listing counseling period. The income scale rushed from 300 million to 400 million.
After listing, the income of small appliances has become increasingly weak, and 400 million income ceiling has not seen a breakthrough. In June 2016, it acquired 100%equity of Jiangsu Xintai Materials Technology for 2.7 billion yuan, opened the road of dual -main business transformation, and entered the production and sales of lithium battery raw materials for lithium battery raw materials.
The Wu Xidun family began in the industry’s ambitions of small appliances, and is stepping up the rudder to drive to a larger, newer, and farther new energy vehicle track.
It is more considerable to rely on the status of private enterprises to get the matter of small home appliances. In the end, it is more considerable. Jiuyang of the soymilk machine, Supor, which is prosperous in the pot, Xinbao shares with the main foundry model, Beiding shares with health electric kettles, flying electrical appliances that are struggling with a shaver to eat Gillette, and the vacuum cleaner who leads the vacuum cleaner Lake Electric, as well as the help of small bear electrical appliances with the help of Internet e -commerce channels, etc., each rammed its leading position in the small home appliance base base, and each of the 30 -year -old wave of the small home appliance industry, all showed fascinating.
In 1988, Guo Jiangang, a 22 -year -old Shunde, who was born in the family of supply and marketing, has been working at the factory of Ronggui after graduating from high school. During the running business, I found that the hair dryer was a big business opportunity, so I purchased a batch of hair drying accessories from Zhejiang. The wife and mother went into battle. In the liquid’s loft, assembled 555 cards of the hair dryer, and took people to Ronggui Factory when the card shell was stuck. The current assembly technology, after the product is formed, the mother brought to Daliang to sell it. It was quickly sold to Taishan and other places from a large number. The business was quickly hot. By 1990, customers such as Shijiazhuang and Baotou took cash to compete for goods. His brother Guo Jianqiang was just called home to take care of his hair dryer before he graduated from college.
In 1991, Guo Jiangang decided to expand production, built five -story factories, from hair dryers to electric iron, and became a well -known hair king. Soon, there was a low price of imitation in the market, which could not be blocked at all. The Guo brothers aimed at the Canton Fair and decided to try OEM OEM production. The order volume increased rapidly, from 5000 to 10,000, and rose to 50,000, and the area of the plant has expanded again. In order to create a professional quality trust, Guo Jiangang also went to Guangzhou to recruit 3 college students to join in.
The way to OEM exports, so on accelerate the explosion. Around 1995, I won the OEM orders such as Walmart, GE, SUNBEAM, AFK, etc.
In 1998, Guo Jiangang and Mo Fei began to cooperate with OEM, and from then on, they were puzzled with Mo Fei. At the end of 2017, Mo Fei also authorized Xinbao Electric to operate the Mofei brand exclusively in the Chinese market. At present, Mo Fei has become a red brand that cannot be underestimated in the category of Chinese small home appliances.
Cooperate with foreign businessmen, each step is facing cost tests and low -cost dumping of peers. Guo Jiangang began to start the quality of design. In March 2001, Liao Zhiwen, a designer who had successfully designed kitchen appliances for 10 years, “introduced the phoenix into the nest”, served as the director of enterprise design, and accelerated the pace of the establishment of the industrial design department.
In 2002, as China joined the WTO’s confidence in foreign businessmen, the income scale of Xinbao Electric jumped to 1 billion in one fell swoop. Products are mainly sold to the Americas and Europe.
In 2003, for the overseas listing, he began to cultivate domestic sales, officially formed domestic sales companies, and dug that Shen Guanxue, who had served as assistant to president in Kelong, and served as trader in domestic sales companies.
In 2004, Dong Ling’s “Donlim” trademark registration, 2005 Xinbao Electric’s full stock reform, sprinted with the capital market, transferred 11%of the equity share to four subsidiaries mainly for management. At this time, the A -share capital market was raised on the eve of the bull market, and the Guo brothers decisively abandoned overseas listing plans and transferred the upcoming bull market express in A shares with 3.5 billion export revenue.
At the beginning of 2007, Xinbao Electric rushed the customs for the first time, and was rejected by the CSRC’s reasons for “the corporate profits were not high and lack of core competitiveness. The magnificent bull market is staged crazy in China. At the end of 2007, Xinbao Electric once again shocked the IPO and was accepted by the CSRC. The financial crisis broke out in 2008, and the listing materials of Xinbao shares on April 20 were withdrawn.
The impact of the financial crisis, starting in the fourth quarter of 2008, the number of Xinbao shares has fallen sharply. It was not until the second quarter of 2009 that export orders returned to the rise. In this year, the IPO was questioned by the psychological stimulus that there was no core technology and was susceptible to the impact of crisis. The independent brand, Dong Ling, was highly hoped. Taking advantage of the Pearl River Delta home appliance manufacturing enterprises, by the trend of accelerating the transfer of cost pressure, Dongling Electric will eventually settle in Luzhou, Anhui. In a year, there were more than 3,000 terminal outlets in the country. They entered the large -scale circulation chain system systems such as Gome, Suning, Darunfa, Carrefour, and Renren. With the help of home appliances to the countryside, the income scale rushed to 300 million. The Dongling brand then entered the Vietnamese market.
According to customs statistics, Xinbao Electric at this time is already China’s largest electric kettle, electric coffee machine, mixer, and polytes exporters, other small home appliances such as bread machines, electric iron, electric ovens, juice machines and other exports It is also at the forefront. SKU involves more than 2,000 models of 12 categories. The main customers are also internationally renowned companies such as Jarden, Applica, Hamilton Beach, Walmart, and Carrefour. There are more than 1,000 customer groups.
In 2012, Xinbao Co., Ltd. sprinted A shares again, but was blocked outside the door by the bear market IPO. After 17 months, Xinbao Electric became the first listed company to land in Shenzhen SME board. Its patent reserves have 1,325 items at this time, of which 112 invention patents, 658 practical new patents, 554 design patents, and 1 overseas patent.
The industrial territory of the Guo brothers has also expanded from small appliances to real estate projects such as real estate, three old transformations, gymnasiums, as well as small loans, and also actively explored the possibility of obtaining the qualifications of village and township banks.
After the listing of small home appliances as the main body, Xinbao shares are gradually developing from China’s largest foundry brand to inside and outside. As of the 2019 annual report data, the scale of domestic sales has exceeded 1.6 billion, and affected by online consumption driven by the epidemic, the latest semi -annual data domestic sales have reached 1.5 billion.
In the capital market, the ox stock meteorological industry has appeared. Since its listing, a total of 1.6 billion yuan has been raised, the dividends are nearly 1.4 billion, the stock price returns are nearly 1,000%, and the market value is 40 billion yuan.
Unlike Xinbao’s main electric kettles, different from the development of small home appliances, but the same goes to the small home appliance industry giant throne, as well as Shandong, which created its own soymilk machine brand Jiuyang and focused on the formation of soymilk machine categories to form a monopoly position. Wang Xuning family; use self -developed yogurt machine sketches, and use the tide of Internet e -commerce channels to quickly establish a category base and move towards Li Yifeng, the founder of the bear electrical appliances with a large number of small home appliances.
From 2020, standing at the historical barrier of China’s economic transformation and upgrading, with the help of scientific and technological innovation and technological upgrading, the new era of the new era of the small home appliance industry has been eager to test the accelerated penetration and impacts the first camp of the small home appliance brand.
From the vacuum cleaner’s foundry, all the way to transformation and upgrading has become the leader of China’s sweeping robot. Cobos seems to have opened a successful model for the small home appliance industry to take off the second curve again.
In 1990, Qian Dongqi, who graduated from the Department of Philosophy of Nanjing University, became a teacher at Shantou University, and went south to Hainan to become a foreign reception person in a foreign trade company. During the period, when a French merchant went to China to purchase vacuum cleaners, foreign trade companies set up an import and export of vacuum cleaners.
With the accumulation of primitive funds, Qian Dongqi started factories in Suzhou. Founded in 1998, Cobos was a small home appliance. Starting from Hoover, the largest vacuum cleaner brand in the world, almost all well -known vacuum cleaner brands in the world have been produced in his factory.
In 1999, I accidentally saw the robotic football game of Harbin Institute of Technology. The sudden imagination: install a wheel of a vacuum cleaner, that is, the mobile cleaning robot. As soon as I entered the pit, I found that some companies abroad had long been doing floor sweeping robots. The robots in the Harbin Institute of Technology were also controlled in the background.
The R & D architecture has been established to jointly develop and develop with Zhejiang University’s automated scientific researchers. From the robot body, to key parts, to the operating system, it finally launched the home cleaning robot brand “Cobos” that was independently developed in 2006. In the meantime, a large number of patents in the field of vacuum cleaner were developed simultaneously, all through the EU’s strictest ROHS limit standards.
In 2007, Apple’s smartphones were hot all over the world. Qian Dongqi’s main weightlifting main business strategy was focused on service robots. In 2009, the Dibao series sweeping robot was launched. The vacuum cleaner business was completely innovated. Immediately afterwards, extended product lines such as window wiping robot windows and air purification robots Qinbao.
Until 2011, Kobos’s robotic income was only 2 million yuan. With the product line of becoming a system, Qian Dongqi began to prepare for overseas listing and introduced investor IDG. In 2015, revenue has reached 312 million yuan, and the volume of 5 years has been 156 times, creating a miracle of sales robot sales. In 2016, after the stock disaster, the A shares entered the restoration period. The registration system was looming. Qian Dongqi decided to change it in the domestic A -share listing. In 2018, successfully landed on the Shanghai motherboard.
As of 2019, its scanning robot revenue exceeded 3.6 billion, and the online and offline market share was close to 48%of China. The main channels are based on online and offline, realized sales online, offline channels do brand display, preferred shopping malls, department stores or home appliance chain super -high -end consumer venues, and continuously export the brand image of the product.
Benefiting from the stimulus of e -commerce and science and technology bull markets, the market value of Cobos is climbing directly at the peak of 40 billion. Kobos, who has tasted the sweetness of technical advantages, is still expanding its technical reserves in depth. On May 5, 2020, Nanjing University established Qian Dongqi Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Physics Fund (referred to as Qian Dongqi AIQ Fund). Qian Dongqi personally donated 10 million yuan to support research on the cross -edge field of artificial intelligence and quantum physics.
When the life scene of hard technology, the Internet and small appliances, the three encounters and the commercialization of the commercialization are accelerating the innovation of the small home appliance industry in the past. The wave of capital market with a market value.
In July 2014, Hunan, born in 1982, jointly established stone technology with Ding Di, Mao Guohua, and Wu Zhen, and developed floor sweeping robots in the second entrepreneurial development. Earlier, he served as a technology and product manager in traveling to the world, Microsoft, and Tencent. In 2011, he founded the Magic Tu Elf in entrepreneurship. He was quickly acquired by Baidu and became a senior manager in Baidu for three years. Two months after its establishment, with DEMO samples, Xiaomi Investment was obtained and became a Xiaomi ecological chain enterprise. Stone and Xiaomi shared knowledge patents. Processing and manufacturing is responsible for Xiaomi cooperative manufacturers, and Xiaomi opens sales channels.
Two years later, in 2016, Stone launched the first product “Mijia Sweeping Robot”, which became popular. As of the end of 2019, stones have been in the field of sweeping robots, occupying the top 2 and the top 3 global. In addition to cooperating with Xiaomi in the form of ODM, independently developed its own stone brand, and the product line continues to grow. In 2018, it increased relatively low -end inertial navigation scanning robots (small tiles). In February 2020, the annual revenue of 4.2 billion yuan of non -net profit exceeded 700 million beautiful data, and registered landing on the science and technology board. Subsequently, the market value was over 60 billion.
More than that, the small home appliance industry accelerated by technology is being fully intelligent. In October 2016, the cloud whale sweeping robot company that was able to wash the drag raid was registered and established. After three years of product research and development, Tmall’s sales have exceeded 10,000 levels, with a praise rate of 4.9.
Obviously, the kings of the Chinese small home appliance industry category on the front line of the industry have experienced a typical three -stage development jump:
The transfer of the system dividend of the transfer of the system, touching the river with large foreign brands and the experience of crossing the river, technology -driven independent research and development brands, each jump period was born corresponding to the time -level star enterprises, but the 40 -year -old ups and downs and continued They all focused on consolidating the category base to obtain a considerable monopoly advantageous position, bringing consumers a happy, fashionable, convenient and high -quality living experience, and creating a surprising return on investment for investors.
Two | The small home appliance industry on the channel “blade”
Let’s increase our horizons from corporate dimensions to higher industry levels, and preliminary analysis of the small home appliance industry from points and the face. It mainly involves the following key issues:
1) How large is the size of the small home appliance industry? What is the source of growth and prosperity?
2) How to distribute the value of the industrial chain? What are the key competition elements of the value creation of the industry chain?
3) Where is the hardness of the competition pattern and competitive advantage of major segment categories?
First of all, the category penetration rate from the needs of life increases, and helps the industry scale steadily expand:
After nearly 40 years of industrial wind and peaks, as of 2018, the size of the small home appliance industry exceeded 350 billion yuan. Subtime categories mainly include the three categories of kitchen, home and home, and the upgrading of old products and old products in major categories and new products are emerging.
Taking the kitchen small appliances such as small and so -demand -type mature items as an example, it is the earliest small home appliances that have entered Chinese families. The market size has grown steadily, and the three major national -level brands of beauty, Supor and Jiuyang have been spawned. However, the largest rice cooker, as of 2019, the data of Ovi Cloud.com, the total retail sales scale is only 17 billion yuan, and more than 5 billion items are more than 5 billion.
Referring to the growth path of mature categories such as rice cookers, its growth rate mainly comes from the penetration rate of households, the average unit price double -rising, and the update of mature items.
The trend of popularizing and improving the penetration rate can integrated the history of the consumption of home appliances such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea. According to GFK research data, the number of small households in my country is about 10 small household appliances, and there are no more than 5 rural areas. There are about 30-50 households in Japan, and the market growth space and imagination are very sufficient.
Based on the penetration rate, Everbright Securities calculates that the potential “large item” expansion will exist nearly 200 billion incremental retail markets, and many of them have or about to exceed the current largest rice cooker.
In addition, the growth history of traditional electric fans and rice cookers has gone through the cycle of typical introduction, growth, maturity, and second -degree growth. Many of the life cycles of many subdivided categories are still in the growth stage, and the new categories are continuously accelerated. This is also injecting the boom factors for the improvement rate. At the same time, the new category from importing to mature decay cycles is becoming shorter and shorter, and the old -fashioned foundry Germany Hunda has continuously mentioned this in the latest semi -annual report.
Taking the growth period of beauty small appliances as an example, according to iBisworld data, the average annual annual growth rate of the industry in 2013-2017 reached 9.2%, of which the average annual growth rate of domestic sales was 11.1%. According to Euromonatte International data, the market size of beauty electrical segment cleansing instruments increased from 1.27 billion yuan in 2014 to 2.4 billion yuan in 2017, with a compound growth rate of 23.6%, and it is expected that the scale of cleansing instruments in 2022 will exceed 3 billion yuan.
Look at the new category of small appliances of kitchen waste disposal, accelerate the promotion of garbage classification in policies, the Chinese market is still in the introduction stage, low penetration rate, and low sales bases, but the online sales data of JD.com and Tmall The quantity ranked first, buying 12%of the nationwide kitchen waste processor, followed by Guangzhou and Hangzhou ranked third. Mainly supporting villas and new high -end communities.
In terms of price, as the popularization rate increases and the rise of strong brands, the unit price increase is also an inevitable phenomenon. Taking the mature rice cooker items as an example, in 2012, the number of urban and rural residents had exceeded 100 units, and the industry entered a mature period. In recent years, with the launch of the IH rice cooker, the industry has entered a second period of growth, and the overall average price of rice cookers has also been from the early 300 yuan/ About Taiwan, increased to about 500 yuan/set.
The demand level phenomenon -level consumer products come out. Basically, national topic products are released every year. The toilet lids of the previous year, last year, Dyson, Mo Fei, and Cefilia robots became heated discussions. With the trend of accelerating popularity, the industry’s prosperity is rising.
Secondly, from the perspective of the value distribution of the industrial chain, channels are the key competition elements that are more important than the brand:
The survey data of the Overwhelm Securities can be seen that the core link of driving the small home appliance industry is manufacturing, brands and channels, and manufacturing and channels are mainly, and the brand stays on a popular bombing.
Before the rise of e -commerce channels, the offline channels of Xiajia electric are mainly third -party channels, including KA (Carrefour, etc.), NKA (Yonghui, etc.), 3C (Suning, etc.), specialty stores and other channels. Those who have obtained channels have a small home appliance brand, which is also the first advantage of the traditional home appliance brand beautiful, Jiuyang, and Supor.
In this sense, through the production and channel network monopoly, the industrial value is obtained. Small appliances have only channel brands and no consumer brands.
Large -scale entry into third -party channels requires a large amount of fixed investment, including entry fees, decoration fees, etc., and also requires enough gross space to support channel operations. Taking Supor and Jiuyang as an example, the average factory discount to dealers is 4%off, superimposed by over 30%of the gross profit margin of domestic sales. The retail price (excluding tax) is 2.5 times the cost of BOM.
With the help of production advantages, heavy advertising bombing and entering the Great channel network, completing channel monopolies, and enhancing the bargaining ability with consumers, becoming the veteran of the rice cooker, soymilk machine, electric kettle, electric heater, etc. Due to the limited offline channel shelves, the brand may not have room for the launch of other brands. The growth path of the old channels of the new brand is basically no way to go.
Each channel change will give birth to new brand players. In 2007, online e -commerce platforms such as Tmall Stores and JD.com accelerated their penetration fission.
According to Ovi Cloud Network, most of the online retail volume of small appliances accounted for over 60%in 2019.
The concentration of the small home electricity channel is significantly lower than the offline. Even the two large items of the rice cooker and the cooking machine are 68.5%and 49.7%on the online CR3, while the offline CR3 is as high as 87.8%and 96.0%. The threshold for channels has dropped sharply, and small and medium -sized brands have a chance to break through.
Bear began to operate traditional e -commerce channels represented by Taobao in 2008, with the help of Taobao’s traffic dividend rising rapidly. The Mijia IoT device relies on Xiaomi’s own traffic. Mo Fei actively embraced the new traffic of various emerging social/content platforms.
Take the new “Internet celebrity” small home appliances as an example. Internal cultivation of the new media operation team, adopts the “content manager system”, and connects KOL evaluation and demonstration around product design promotion copywriting, recipes, etc., to make good content reserves for centralized promotion;
Call all the resources such as Xiaohongshu, Weibo, WeChat, short video community, etc., and focus on the effect of “swiping the screen”. Users repeatedly accept product information from different channels, and quickly strengthen the product “Internet celebrity” attributes. Grass”;
The omni -channel detonation of sales, relying on word of mouth to spread. Through various channels such as e -commerce platforms and offline group buying, the needs of successful grass planting in the early stage will be detonated, and through “everyone is using” and “redness”, etc. Product “Internet celebrity”.
Finally, the high concentration of competition in the small home appliance industry determines that online channels have established a new category status in one fell swoop, which is a necessary action to consolidate the competitive advantage:
According to Xinbao’s IPO prospectus, China is the world’s most important small home appliance production base. Global production capacity has basically deployed in China. The competition for small home appliance production is mainly Chinese enterprises.
In terms of market segment, small home appliances and personal nursing small home appliances are the highest penetration rates, and a stable competition pattern has been formed. Traditional kitchen small home appliance markets are mainly Midea Groups, Supor, Jiuyang Co., Ltd. and other brands; personal nursing small home appliance markets, mainly Feike Electric and Philips.
In the past ten years, according to the offline retail monitoring of Zhongyikang, CR3, the CR3 of the kitchen appliances, has risen from 77%in 2012 to 90%in 2017, and most category CR3 reaches more than 80%.
According to the data of Ovi Cloud in 2018, Midea and Supor’s market share in the three major categories of rice cookers, electric pressure cookers, and induction cookers are absolutely ahead. The CR2 total of nearly 70%, 80%, and 70%, respectively. The rice cooker market is even more oligopoly. Midea is about 40%of the annual maintenance, and Supor reaches 30.5%.
In the context of the continuous decline of the soymilk machine, Jiuyang can still achieve double -digit growth in income. 20 product lines and 400 SKUs, the market share in soymilk machines and juice machine products is about 80%and 40%, respectively, and strong monopolies have consolidated first.
The high -growth emerging category is still in the early stage of development, and the industry space is large and the pattern is scattered. Compared with the rapid growth period of the life cycle of large household appliances, most small appliance categories, especially innovative products, have strong demand explosion power. , But the growth period is short, so the “starting is the explosive product” marketing strategy and the category blue ocean strategy is the two major wins, and the bonus window period is short.
如新宝旗下摩飞品牌不断覆盖榨汁杯、多士炉、料理棒、咖啡机等,打造爆品西式小厨电;小熊推出酸奶机、煎药壶、养生壶、电热饭盒等多样创意小Home appliances, more than 400 products SKU, highly refine covering the whole scene from infants and young people to middle -aged and elderly people, and extensively distribute the director of the director. In the field of new categories, Cobos, Stone Technology, IROBOT, etc. also rely on explosive dividends to accelerate the position.
From the perspective of the traditional kitchen cooking category that has entered the monopoly pattern, driven by the technological innovation, the United States and Nine Soviets are constantly promoted, and the product iteration upgrades are continuously promoted, and the growth space of growth is continuously opened.
New categories of subdivisions of the rise of e -commerce channels and marketing traffic dividends, such as Bear and Xinbao, will also build a base to build a base and welcomes the development of the product after consolidating the foothold of the category base. Capital and management empower.
The road of the market value of the Hong Kong stock market of Xinbao’s A -share market and the double market value of the Hong Kong stocks of Jiuyang’s parent company’s global life exactly indicates the market’s recognition and reward of the above path.
Three | Dance with the category, the market value of the top of the sky
Based on the above -mentioned industry analysis, the growth of listed companies in A -share appliances is constantly obtaining data verification.
Due to the differences in business models, we will compare the income trend from the two levels of foundry brand and self -operated brand:
The A -share listed company has taken root in the small home appliance industry in ODM and OEM models. There are three main mains. The other former leader Ilipu has retired from the market in 2018.
Xinbao continued to dominate the status of China’s small home appliance foundry first, and continued to grow. After the 2008 crisis baptism, it showed a strong cycle ability. The main customers of foundry include international giant chain brands such as JARDEN, Applica, Hamilton Beach, Walmart, and Carrefour. In 2013, the independent brand Dong Ling transferred to the domestic sales market, and then went to the United States and other Southeast Asian regions. At the end of 2017, it was officially exclusively represented by the British century -old brand Mo Fei’s appliances to strengthen the status of the small home appliance industry in the domestic sales market.
Beidin also started with foundry, and is foundry such as Kitchenaid, Maytag, Morphy Richards, Breville, CONAIR Group and other foundries. The foundry income is basically half of the domestic sales.
Behind the income trend is the extension of business strategy and entrepreneurial intention. Dehao Runda maintained a fluctuations around 2 billion, mainly in Europe and North America. The domestic brand is mainly based on ACA’s own brand. Behind it is that the two show strong path differences in the cycle capacity of the crisis.
In 2008, the financial crisis was not in a disaster for the small home appliance industry. In 2004, the Diren Runda small home appliance that landed on A shares. After the capital market baptism of the 2007 Super Bull market cycle, in 2009, the fruit was selected to transform. In 2010, 2012, and 2014 In the LED industry of Chaoyang Industry, a well-known upstream and downstream enterprises such as Guangdong Jianlongda, Shenzhen Ruituo, and Tinses Lighting have created a “extension chip-packaging and module-LeD application products (lighting and display)-brand and channels “The entire LED industry chain became the only company in the domestic LED industry to open the key links of production and sales at that time. In 2013, the LED industry’s capacity was excessive, and the supply was overdone. In 2017, the industry price war has not stopped. As of December 2020, De Hao Runda Double Professor Yang made a lawsuit, and the stock price also traveled near 1.3 yuan / share.
In the past, the kingdom Ilipu, the Japanese small home appliance market, was more aggressive compared to Dehao Runda’s main battlefield. Listed in 2008, the scale of small appliances exceeded 700 million. The impact of the financial crisis, after a loss of 38.41 million yuan in 2009, has not been obvious. In 2013, the old part of the Delong department took the “Five -Year Strategic Plan for General Aviation Projects” as an index, trying to build a global manufacturer of Chinese civilian helicopters and drones. The quagmire is constantly being moved by capital. In 2017, it was intended to transfer Zhenai.com’s backdoor listing and finally delisted. Until the delisting in 2018, its electrical business revenue was 728 million, accounting for 98%of listed companies, and the transformation of ten years, which was finally empty.
Let’s look at the income trend of small home appliance companies mainly based on self -operated brand OBM models, and new home appliances players focusing on the main business are endless. From this point of view, the growth space of the small home appliance industry is still worth looking forward to and focusing on. In contrast, the growth trend of focusing on the domestic market is better. In addition to the OEM of Lake Electric Vacuum, there are still export workers for domestic brand foundry. Jiuyang and Supor are old -fashioned and grow up stably. Little Bear Electric later lived up to grow up.
The stable expansion trend of income will become a key data indicator for measuring growth of small appliances. The capital market of Feike Electric, that is, the lessons of the front car, once the growth rate slows down or even stabilizes, waiting for the decline in expectations and the destruction of market value.
Focusing on the trend of gross profit margins mainly based on the OBM model, referring to the data of Beiding Co., Ltd., the industry average gross profit is about 30%. Most well -known brands are expected to achieve a 35%gross profit level.
Among them, the Beiding brand health pot, which is sold in Beiding, is the main source of gross profit. From design, manufacturing to sales full coverage, we earn gross profit in design+manufacturing+sales links, and the value chain is relatively long. From the perspective of channels, the total income of online direct sales, offline direct -operated and online sales has accounted for 72.58%, 72.36%, and 70.99%, respectively. The same industry is basically offline and online distribution. Relatively speaking, Beiding has no other intermediate links and does not need to transfer profits to distributors, dealers, etc.; online sales deductions are relatively low and have higher gross profit space.
The brand’s ambitions that Beidin’s depending on Apple is clear. If it is successful, it can be called the star of the Chinese high -end small appliance brand. However, the disadvantage of self -built channels is that the sales expansion is not fast and cannot express growth quickly, which has been reflected in the income trend.
In terms of sales expenses, the sales rate continues to rise overall, with a trend of breaking 10%. Supor and Jiuyang, which are overlords in the interior, are the characteristics of the Bear Electric and Beiding, which are based on online e -commerce, showing the characteristics of dual high companies. The main model of Xinbao’s foundry corresponds to lower market expansion, but the sign of higher signs also shows that with the expansion of self -operated brand income, sales investment has increased. In the development and competition of consumer demand resources, the competition in the industry is still continuously fierce and fully fierce.
According to the summary of the Prospects of Bear Electric, the domestic small home appliance market has become more intense in recent years, and the phenomenon of homogeneity of products is obvious. With the development of driving products innovation, it can undoubtedly open the competitive gradient and shape differences. Behind the high price of the health pot of Beiding Co., Ltd., it is also a full -scale homework in design. Technological innovation and appearance creativity are gradually changing consumer consumption tendencies. The overall research and development of the industry has continued to strengthen. In addition to the old -fashioned Jiuyang Supor, the self -operated brand Xinbao, Bear, and Beiding all showed research and development of driving symptoms.
In terms of profitability, the net interest rate trend of the small home appliance industry is maintained at 5-7%. It is difficult to be excellent. In addition to the stability of the old players as ever, the income expansion of the bear and Xinbao also brings profitability. The scale effect and bargaining ability are continuously strengthened. Growth is confirmed.
In terms of profit quality, the matching trend of net profit and operating cash flow, Supor and Bear and Bear Electric have better stability, basically maintained above 1, showing the strength of real gold and silver. In addition to the impact of the trade war in 2018 in Xinbao, cash creation capabilities are excellent. Beidin’s income growth is extraordinary, but considering that the income volume is small and the category is too small, the revenue expansion capacity of the direct sales model of boutique stores needs to be further observed.
In fact, the high -quality leader of the small home appliance industry has given investors’ returns. From Xinbao and Supor and Jiuyang shares, they have already received golden verification. From the perspective of valuation water level, taking old category leaders such as Jiuyang in Supor as an example, the basic median number is 20-25 times, and the high point is 40 times.
The valuation trend of Xinbao also shows the volatility of the valuation of approximately oligopoly. In 2018, the market expectations of the trade war impacting exports will soon be repaired by violence, but it is still difficult to stand by 50 times.
The market consensus that the small appliances growing in the income trend are further reflected in the bear appliances of the list of recruits. Since the listing, it has always fluctuated around 30 times the premium. This year, the epidemic affected by the epidemic is 80 times the expectations of extreme bubbles, and it is still in the repair range. However, compared to the elder brother Su Jiubao, investors are still giving the bear at least 10 times the valuation room.
For investors who embrace life and love life, a high -profile investment opportunity is obviously bred.
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